Updated ,first published
Melbourne is now forecast to reach 45 degrees on Tuesday as northern parts of Victoria brace for a week of temperatures above 40 and high bushfire-risk conditions.
Meanwhile, in the Otways, in the state’s south-west, people near an out-of-control bushfire who have not yet left are being urged to do so by sunset.
Police and SES volunteers have begun doorknocking more than 1000 properties near the Carlisle River fire, south of Colac, but are urging people not to wait for police.
“The message is to leave today,” Forest Fire Management Victoria said in its latest update just before midday.
“Prepare to evacuate before sunset today. If you choose to stay, emergency services may not be able to help you.”
All visitor sites in the Great Otway National Park and state forests have been closed until further notice.
There are three relief centres for people to evacuate to – two in Colac and one in the Geelong suburb of Grovedale.
Extreme and severe fire danger ratings, as well as a statewide total fire ban, were announced for Victoria on Tuesday.
People in Lorne and Wye River, affected by flash flooding two weeks ago, are now being urged to monitor changing fire conditions.
The Otways blaze began on January 7, but broke containment lines during Saturday’s extreme fire danger day in the south-west. Smoke from the fire blanketed Melbourne in the early hours of Sunday.
The latest Otways warning comes as northern Victoria braces for record-breaking temperatures of up to 49 degrees on Tuesday and a week-long heatwave, intensifying the risk of bushfires.
“We’re expecting 45 degrees the maximum for Melbourne tomorrow,” said bureau forecaster Simon Timcke.
“We’ll see a milder southwesterly change push across western districts and central districts during the afternoon, probably not reaching Melbourne until very late evening.”
“With that change tomorrow, there could be a bit of dust blown up out to the west, and the wind change could bring a little bit of smoke to the Melbourne area again.”
Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said parts of northern Victoria were likely to experience seven consecutive days above 40 degrees.
“We haven’t seen heatwave conditions like this in Victoria for almost 20 years,” Wiebusch said, referencing the heat before and on Black Saturday in 2009. Melbourne reached 46.4 degrees on February 7, 2009.
The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that the town of Ouyen, in the state’s far north-west, will reach 49 degrees on Tuesday, which would be a Victorian record.
“Hopetoun and Walpeup are both forecasting 48 degrees on Tuesday, [so] we could potentially see an all-time record for those two locations,” forecaster Diana Eddie said.
She said a cool change was likely to reach the state’s south-west by late Tuesday afternoon, but would not arrive in Melbourne until about 10pm.
Melbourne is forecast to hit a maximum of 30 degrees on Monday and a top of 45 degrees on Tuesday.
The city was forecast to have cooler maximum temperatures in the mid-20s on Wednesday and Thursday.
The bureau issued heatwave warnings for much of the state from Sunday to Wednesday. The warning was at “extreme” level for the state’s north-east and “severe” across northern Victoria.
Maximum temperatures would be in the high 30s to mid-40s in the northern half of the state during the heatwave, and peak on Tuesday in the 40s “right across” Victoria, the bureau said.
Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman said buildings might have been lost, but assessors were yet to examine the damage in thick bushland.
“That heating that will be with us on Tuesday will again cause that fire to move, potentially rapidly,” he said.
Hardman also warned that the Walwa fire in the High Country near the NSW border could challenge firefighters for weeks, as it had grown to more than 100,000 hectares.
“As early as later [on Sunday], or certainly [on Monday], we could see that fire escape its containment lines and move to the south,” he said. “Although there are no large communities at risk, this is one to watch in the weeks ahead.”
More than 1000 structures have been damaged by bushfires in Victoria this summer, 289 of them homes.
The Longwood fire devastated parts of central Victoria earlier this month, but it is now contained.
“It’s very early in the season,” Hardman said. “We’ve had some terrible fires, but it’s not the time to turn our gaze away from the challenges ahead.”
Ambulance Victoria said paramedics responded to 11 cases of children locked in cars as temperatures soared on Saturday.
“Hot cars can kill,” Ambulance Victoria emergency management director Dale Armstrong said.
“Victorians also need to be cautious and take preventative steps to avoid illnesses such as heat stroke, those at most risk, [for example] the elderly, the young, the pregnant and those with medical conditions.”
Heat stroke could be fatal in up to 80 per cent of cases, Armstrong warned.
Powercor, the electricity distributor for Melbourne CBD and Victoria’s west, said it will have extra crews, dispatchers, controllers, customer specialists and others ready to act in coming days.
“We have reviewed all planned work until Wednesday and will either cancel or modify jobs to ensure power is available in heat-impacted areas,” a spokesperson said.
“Customers are urged to plan ahead: Charge phones and other devices, keep a battery-powered radio for real-time updates, and have a backup plan for life support equipment or caring for babies, elderly, disabled people or pets.”
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